I didn’t think I’d have time to post this challenge today, but I couldn’t pass this one up, and fortunately, a straightforward post. Here is my response to Fandango’s One Word Challenge (FOWC), slime.
It has been one of those days. I had an idea for a post yesterday, and started writing it this morning. Then, one interruption after another.
I had a few months of mail to wade through – in it were a couple of bills which, three months overdue, I figure I ought finally to pay.
The upshot is that I managed to find a few minutes to finish my post earlier this afternoon – it is getting on for 7PM now and I am just able to start to relax – I still need to log on to my internet banking later and pay those bills. But that can wait a few hours. I saw Melanie’s latest batch of Share Your World questions, so hopefully they’ll help me wind down. Heaven knows if I will have time for FOWC before I peg out.
This week, Melanie asks:
What do you think of professional motivational speakers? Do you think they motivate?
Fundamentally, I see motivational speaking just as public speaking, where the aim is to motivate. And when we talked about public speaking last week, there was quite a large spectrum of reactions, so presumably we’d also be a pretty mixed bunch as regards motivational speaking.
A couple of people who were good motivational speakers were, say, Martin Luther King and Billy Graham, obviously both for very different reasons. But both of them left their audience feeling empowered.
Do you have a favorite flavor?
No, I have a favourite flavour of things, but not really a favourite flavour, period. And taken over all things, the flavours can be quite different.
For example, the best flavoured crisps/chips I ever tasted was vinegar and shalot, while one of my favourite sweet flavours is turkish delight. Two very different flavours.
While out walking, you hear a rustling in some bushes. What do you think of?
Around here? I’d probably assume that I’d spooked some animal.
It’s funny, though, when I was still up in Liverpool, one of my drinking buddies was a guy who had formerly been a soldier, including serving tours in Northern Ireland. One time, we were walking along, a car backfired and he was over the hedge before I knew what had happened. So maybe that rustle could have been him?
What’s your ideal temperature (nature-wise)? Hot, cold, temperate and mild, humid or bone dry?
Low 20s C, probably. That’s about 70F. It’s roughly that here this week. I don’t mind if it is warmer, as I usually feel the cold these days. I don’t really like humidity – it can get a bit like that here in a couple months. I remember the first time I went to the US I was in Tampa, Fl, and that wasn’t pleasant. It wasn’t sunny either, just constant cloud cover.
My friend Farida posted a quiz question yesterday, and I responded that the graphic she used looked like a lottery ticket. I suggested that it would be a good question. What are the odds of winning the lottery?
I’m gonna pre-empt that question, by answering it myself, today.
In the UK, you need to match 6 numbers, from a possible 59. That 6:59 format seems quite a common combination globally.
On the night of the draw:
- before you start, there are 59 balls in the pot, and you have six possible numbers on your ticket, so the chance of getting a hit is 6/59.
- Let’s assume you got a hit.
- Second number. One ball has been removed from the bag, but one ball, too, has been crossed off your ticket, so the odds are 5/58.
The odds of getting both the first and second numbers are those two numbers, multiplied, i.e. (6/59) * (5/58). Which is 30/3,422, or 1/115. That’s for getting the first two numbers.
- Now, third ball out. You know the drill.
There’s one less ball in the bag – 57.
There’s also one less number on your ticket – 4.
So, to get just the third ball, you’re 4/57.
And to get all all of the first three balls, you’re
(6/59) * (5/58) * (4/57)
I won’t work that out, because we’re not through yet.
- Fourth ball. Again, one less ball in the bag, one less number on the ticket.
Balls in bag – 56
Numbers on ticket – 3
And, the odds to get all four of the balls so far,
(6/59) * (5/58) * (4/57) * (3/56)
- Fifth ball.
55 balls to choose from
2 numbers left on your ticket.
Odds of getting all five numbers:
(6/59) * (5/58) * (4/57) * (3/56) * (2/55)
- And lastly, the sixth ball.
54 balls to choose from
1 number left on your ticket.
Odds of getting all six numbers:
(6/59) * (5/58) * (4/57) * (3/56) * (2/55) * (1/54)
Phew! So, where are we at? Well, if you got to the very end there, congratulations! You just won the lottery! But let’s finally work out that sum.
(6/59) * (5/58) * (4/57) * (3/56) * (2/55) * (1/54) = about 1/22,500,000.
But it’s not impossible. People do win the lottery, here maybe every month or so.
But more often, nobody wins. On their site at the moment, they say the next draw is a triple rollover – so that is the last two draws, where nobody has won. In fact, winners are sufficiently rare that the lottery company has a rule of no more than five rollovers in a row. After that, they share the prize money out between the people who came closest.
But, would you back a horse at those odds?
My answer, by the way, is “no”. I don’t buy a ticket, which I figure is the most profitable move of all!